Former leftist Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was leading the polls by a big margin… enough to spur predictions of a first-round win and return to office.

But the right-wing incumbent Jair Bolsonaro proved the polls wrong, finishing much stronger than expected in Sunday’s voting.

Now, the second round – and the future of the country – is much more unpredictable. We begin with this report from Paulo Cabral.

To discuss:

• Gustavo Ribeiro is the founder and editor in chief of The Brazilian Report.
• Ana Julia Bonzanini Bernardi is a professor of political science at the Foundation School of Sociology and Politics of São Paulo.
• Alberto Danon is a journalist and press advisor for the Brazilian political party PTB.
• Paulo Sotero is a distinguished fellow at the Wilson Center’s Brazil Institute.

For more:

#Brazil 🇧🇷 | In Brazil's presidential election, Lula defeats Bolsonaro by more than 5,000,000 votes in the first round. The left-leaning former president Lula will now compete against the far-right Bolsonaro in the second round on 30 October. pic.twitter.com/HN9HJucpkQ

— The International Magazine (@TheIntlMagz) October 3, 2022

#Brazil | “4 years ago I couldn't vote because I was a victim of a lie in this country. I was arrested by the federal police exactly on election day. I tried to get a ballot box brought to my cell to vote, they didn't. Today I am here voting with recognition of my total freedom.” pic.twitter.com/yGf819ihCq

— teleSUR English (@telesurenglish) October 2, 2022